After two drought years, monsoon expected to be normal this year

(File Photo)
IMD to release monsoon prediction report later in the day.

After two back-to-back years of drought in the country, Skymet, the government and other agencies expect a normal monsoon this year. A prediction, if it comes true, will bring major relief to the several drought- and water crisit-hit areas in the country.

Private Indian weather forecaster Skymet predicts an "above normal" monsoon this year.

According to Skymet, there's 20% chance that monsoon this year will be in "excess". "Excess" monsoon is described as seasonal rainfall over 110% of the Long Period Average (LPA).

-- There's a 35% chance that of an "above normal" monsoon described as 105-110% of the LPA.

-- A 30% chance of a "normal monsoon" which is 96% to 104% of LPA and only a 10% and 5% chance of "below normal" (90-95% of LPA) or a "drought" (90% of LPA).

After Skymet's monsoon prediction report, the benchmark Nifty jumped 116 points to re-gain the 7,600 territory on Monday.

Agricultural Secretary Shobhana K Patnaik also said that South West winds-led monsoon is expected to be better-than-expected, a development that markets will be watching closely for cues, a Zee Business report said.

"El nino condition is declining. It is expected that La Nina will takeover and will perhaps favour a good monsoon this year," she said.

An Axis Bank report said "Strong El Nino conditions are still continuing, and while they may weaken in the middle of 2016, any delay would bode ill for monsoon even if it is ‘normal’.

According to the Zee Business report, it is unlikely that drought-like situation will continue for the third straight year, a phenomena that hasn't happened in the last 115 years. The report says that the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) has also predicted a normal monsoon this year.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected to give 2016's monsoon forecast on Tuesday. The prediction will be released by IMD director General Laxman Singh Rathore.

The Reserve Bank of India cut its key policy rates by 25 bps on April 5 after a six-month hiatus. A move that was welcomed by some in the industry but largely, the markets believe that there was still space for a 25bps rate cut. Governor Raghuram Rajan said that the bank will take further cues from the monsoon season and transmission of the rate cut by the banks.

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