Prime quality coking coal will remain scarce in the coming days
August 1 (Strategic Research Institute ) Over supply culminating in sinking level has become hackneyed topic in colloquial times. However the coming days will see shifting focus from quantity to quality as a survival ploy by the mining majors in Australia.
Undeniably the drive for coking coal has made steel majors venture into Mozambique and Mongolia to have raw material security at stable prices. Importance for self sufficiency as cost saving tool is more pronounced in economic crisis and declining finished prices.
However little is known about the quality coking coal and its availability. Dynamics of global coking coal and steel industry will be determined by the availability of right quality of raw material.
Even though are large export capacity additions are coming up in Mozambique and Mongolia quality and availability of the material will remain a issue. Whereas the Mongolian product will be mostly fed into China, Mozambique's medium-low volatile hard coking coal is being promoted in the market at quite high ash levels ranging around 10.5% to 11.0%.
There will be a fair bit of competition between buyers for any premium hard coking coal as it is unlikely that premium hard coking coal supply will be sufficient despite capacity addition.
Global in 2012 291 million tones of coking coal will be exported out which Australia accounts for 143 million tones growing by 10.4% YoY. It is expected to increase to 160 million ton in 2013, jumping to 175 million ton in 2015 and steadily increasing to 211 million ton in 2025. In US exports have been forecast to fall to 51 million ton next year followed by 48.5 million ton in 2015 and to 42.5 million ton by 2025. In the above scenario the future bodes well for the Australian miners who would be commanding levels above USD 200 per ton for prime quality coking coal 2013 as well.
Undeniably the drive for coking coal has made steel majors venture into Mozambique and Mongolia to have raw material security at stable prices. Importance for self sufficiency as cost saving tool is more pronounced in economic crisis and declining finished prices.
However little is known about the quality coking coal and its availability. Dynamics of global coking coal and steel industry will be determined by the availability of right quality of raw material.
Even though are large export capacity additions are coming up in Mozambique and Mongolia quality and availability of the material will remain a issue. Whereas the Mongolian product will be mostly fed into China, Mozambique's medium-low volatile hard coking coal is being promoted in the market at quite high ash levels ranging around 10.5% to 11.0%.
There will be a fair bit of competition between buyers for any premium hard coking coal as it is unlikely that premium hard coking coal supply will be sufficient despite capacity addition.
Global in 2012 291 million tones of coking coal will be exported out which Australia accounts for 143 million tones growing by 10.4% YoY. It is expected to increase to 160 million ton in 2013, jumping to 175 million ton in 2015 and steadily increasing to 211 million ton in 2025. In US exports have been forecast to fall to 51 million ton next year followed by 48.5 million ton in 2015 and to 42.5 million ton by 2025. In the above scenario the future bodes well for the Australian miners who would be commanding levels above USD 200 per ton for prime quality coking coal 2013 as well.
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